Situational Update

Twelve children and teens were killed, and 30 were wounded, when a rocket hit a soccer field in the northern Druze town Saturday afternoon. The IDF has said that the rocket was an Iranian-made Falaq-1 with a warhead of over 50 kilograms (110 pounds) of explosives. The victims were named as Alma Ayman Fakher Eldin, 11; Milad Muadad Alsha’ar, 10; Vinees Adham Alsafadi, 11; Iseel Nasha’at Ayoub, 12; Yazan Nayeif Abu Saleh, 12; Johnny Wadeea Ibrahim, 13; Ameer Rabeea Abu Saleh, 16; Naji Taher Alhalabi, 11; Fajer Laith Abu Saleh, 16; Hazem Akram Abu Saleh, 15; Nathem Fakher Saeb, 16; and Jafara Ibrahim, 10. Benny Ben-Muvhar, head of the Mevo’ot Hermon Regional Council, told Channel 12 news that four or five of the children killed were members of a single family.

• According to media outlet Israel Hayom, Israel has delivered an updated response to the proposed deal for releasing hostages and implementing a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Mossad Director David Barnea is expected to fly to Rome Sunday for a four-way summit with top officials from the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, as diplomatic efforts to reach a breakthrough gain momentum. Arab sources report that the talks will include Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate Abbas Kamel, and CIA Director William Burns. Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar newspaper, known for its connections to Hamas, reported that additional meetings are planned in Doha and Cairo this week. Sources informed the newspaper that the Rome meeting will concentrate on Israeli modifications to the most recent proposal, as well as outlining a post-war framework. The sources added that “mediators are crafting proposals to address outstanding issues that remain unresolved.”
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Sunday appeared to threaten to invade Israel in support of the Palestinians, and to put an end to the nearly 10-month-old war Israel is fighting against Hamas in Gaza.

Israel at the Olympics

• Israel has sent one of its largest-ever delegations, with athletes partaking in events ranging from swimming and triathlon to equestrian and gymnastics. Past Israeli Olympic medalists Artem Dolgopyat, Avishag Semberg and the country’s mixed judo team are returning, while Israel is competing in Olympic soccer for the first time 1976. According to the Jerusalem Post, there will be 88 Israeli athletes competing in 16 different sports, with 54 men and 34 women. However, 18 of the men are from the soccer team. In comparison, at the last Olympics, there were 90 blue-and-white athletes participating in 16 sports, with 24 of the 55 men coming from the baseball team.

• Even though the Israel Olympic team was not allowed to wear their “Bring them Home Now” pins, the women’s synchronized swimming team still sent a message at the conclusion of their practice.
• An Algerian judoka set to face an Israeli on Monday disqualified himself from competing on Sunday, rather than face a competitor from the Jewish state.
• Fellow judoka Baruch Shmailov won his first match against Morocco’s Abderrahmane Boushita — who walked off the mat without shaking the Israeli’s hand. Shmailov then lost in the round of 16 match against Tajikistan’s Nurali Emomali, ending his individual Olympic run. Emomali also exited the mat without shaking Shmailov’s hand. Shaking hands following a judo match is not mandatory, but it is customary.

The Numbers

Casualties

***I am adding a brief note going forward to each casualty figure that indicates the change from the last update

• 1,649 Israelis dead (+18 since Wednesday) including 689 IDF soldiers (329 IDF soldiers during the ground operation in Gaza: +4 since Wednesday)
  • First Sergeant (res.) Moti Rave (37), the operator of a D9 Big bulldozer, was struck by an RPG during fighting against the Hamas terror group in southern Gaza’s Rafah on Thursday.
  • Cpt. Ariel Topaz (24), who was struck by a terrorist in a ramming attack last week near Tzrifin in central Israel, has succumbed to his injuries.
  • Sgt. Yonatan Aharon Greenblatt, 21, who was critically wounded last week in southern Gaza’s Rafah succumbed to his injuries over the weekend, the military announced Sunday. Greenblatt was hit by an anti-tank projectile fired at a building he was in in Rafah on July 20, and taken to a hospital in critical condition.
  • St.-Sgt. Noam Douek, 19 died in Gaza, the IDF announced on Thursday, with it emerging that he may have been killed by gas from a faulty IDF generator, and not in battle.
• Additional Information (according to the IDF):
  • 2,160 (+12 since Wednesday) IDF soldiers have been injured during ground combat in Gaza, including at least 408 (+4 since Wednesday) who have been severely injured.
  • 4,229 (+16 since Wednesday) IDF soldiers have been injured since the beginning of the war, including at least 627 (+4 since Wednesday) who have been severely injured.
• Note: we have always included the number of casualties in Gaza, as reported by the Gaza Health Ministry. We feel it is important to include this information with the caveat that this reporting ministry is not a trusted source of data by many. Most recently, The United Nations has begun citing a much lower death toll for women and children in Gaza, acknowledging that it has incomplete information about many of the people killed during Israel’s military offensive in the territory.
  • According to unverified figures from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, 39,324 (+234 since Wednesday) people have been killed in Gaza, and 90,830 (+412 since Wednesday) have been injured during the war.
  • We also encourage you to read this well documented piece from Tablet published in March: How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers
  • The Associated Press, an outlet with a demonstrated anti-Israel bias, conducted an analysis of alleged Gaza death tolls released by the Hamas-controlled “Gaza Health Ministry.” The analysis found that “9,940 of the dead – 29% of its April 30 total – were not listed in the data” and that “an additional 1,699 records in the ministry’s April data were incomplete and 22 were duplicates.”

Hostages (no change from Wednesday)

• The IDF informed the families of Alex Dancyg, 76, from Nir Oz, and Yagev Buchshtab, 35, from Nirim, that the men were killed several months ago in Gaza, and that their bodies are being held by Hamas. The decision announced on Monday was based on intelligence information and was approved by an expert committee of the Ministry of Health in cooperation with the Ministry of Religious Services and the Israel Police, according to the IDF. Buchshtab’s wife, Rimon Kirsht-Buchshtab, who was abducted with them, has returned alive. Rimon and her husband Yagev Buchshtav, were kidnapped from their apartment in the kibbutz. Contact with Yagev ‘s parents, who live near the couple, was cut off in the morning hours of October 7 while they were also hiding in their secure room. A few hours later, when Yagev’s father arrived at his son and daughter-in-law’s apartment accompanied by military forces, he found it empty with bullets on the floor.
  • Per journalist Marc Schulman, Alex was an expert on Poland, leading groups and authoring a wide array of guidebooks on Poland. Alex’s popular guidebooks were the inspiration for the apps we developed to teach about Poland and the Holocaust.
• According to the Jerusalem Post, the IDF recovered the body of hostage Maya Goren, 56, in a military operation in Gaza on Wednesday. “She will be buried next to her husband Avner Goren, who was murdered on October 7.” Goren worked as a kindergarten teacher and “lovingly cared for the children of the kibbutz for many years,” the Kibbutz said. Goren’s husband was murdered on October 7, and the couple left behind four children.
• According to the Jerusalem Post, Kibbutz Nir Yitzhak announced that the body of hostage Oren Goldin, a member of the Kibbutz’s emergency standby squad who was killed and taken hostage on October 7, was recovered and returned to Israel by the IDF. “Oren was the first to leave that dark morning, even before we knew how serious the danger was outside. In November, about a month and a half, which we were hoping for a sign of life, we were informed that Oren was killed on 7/10 and his body is being held hostage.” He ran Kibbutz Nir Yitzhak’s mechanic shop, was among the first members of the community’s civilian defense team to respond to the attack.
• Ravid Katz, 51, was taken captive by Hamas terrorists on October 7, when they attacked Kibbutz Nir Oz where Katz lives with his family and other relatives. On that Saturday, Ravid made sure his wife and four-month-old baby were safe with neighbors in their sealed room and went to fight the terrorists with the kibbutz security team. Ravid’s wife and baby survived the assault, after hiding for hours. Ravid’s sister Doron Katz Asher and her two daughters were taken hostage separately and released on November 24, 2023.
• On October 7^th, a total of 261 Israelis were taken hostage.
• During the ceasefire deal in November, 112 hostages were released.
• A total of 7 hostages have been rescued and the remains of 21 others have been recovered (no change since Wednesday). Tragically, 3 have been mistakenly killed by the IDF, and 1 was killed during an IDF attempt to rescue him.
• 49 hostages have been confirmed dead.
• This leaves an estimated 111-112 hostages still theoretically in Gaza, with somewhere between (assumed) 33-41 deceased. Thus, at most, 82 living hostages could still be in Gaza.
  • According to an article published in the WSJ, “Of the approximately 250 hostages taken in the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack, 116 continue to be held captive, including many believed to be dead. Mediators in the hostage talks and a U.S. official familiar with the latest U.S. intelligence said the number of those hostages still alive could be as low as 50.”
  • That assessment, based in part on Israeli intelligence, would mean 66 of those still held hostage could be dead, 25 more than Israel has publicly acknowledged.
  • Link: Families of Hostages in Gaza Are Desperate for News but Dread a Phone Call | WSJ

(Sources: JINSA, FDD, IDF, AIPAC, The Paul Singer Foundation, The Institute for National Security Studies, the Alma Research and Education Center, Yediot, Jerusalem Post, and the Times of Israel)

Listen

[PODCAST] Call Me Back with Dan Senor: Decision Time In The North – with Matti Friedman

• This past weekend we saw a major and brazen escalation against Israel by Hezbollah. This war front is not new, but it will now come into much sharper focus.
• And with the slaughter of Druze children, we have received a number of questions about Israel’s Druze community in Israel’s North, as well as questions about the options for Israeli decision-makers now.

  To help us unpack all of this, we are joined by Matti Friedman, who is one of the most thoughtful writers when it comes to all matters related to Israel, the broader Middle East, and also trends in the world of journalism.

• Link: Call Me Back – with Dan Senor: Decision Time In The North – with Matti Friedman on Apple Podcasts

Watch

[VIDEO] Barak Ravid with Axios posts his interview with CNN about the Hezbollah rocket attack, which killed 12 children and teenagers in the Golan Heights and why this is a very dangerous moment in the region.

[VIDEO] Two survivors of the Nova Festival get married, 10 months after they lost their right legs. Gali Segal and Ben Binyamin, who have been together for 7 years, were celebrating Ben’s birthday at the music festival when they were shot in their legs.

Humanitarian Aid

For more detail, please visit COGAT’s website: Israel Humanitarian efforts – Swords of Iron (govextra.gov.il)

John Spencer, Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute, has been a trusted resource for information. He recommended this website: Rocket Alerts in Israel, to track the number of rockets fired and UAV’s entering Israel.

What We Are Reading

The Terrifying Lebanon Scenarios by FDD’s Jonathan Schanzer in Commentary

• The expected Israeli response could very well mark the most serious escalation in the unnamed and unofficial war between Israel and Hezbollah. Iran’s most powerful proxy began attacking Israel on October 8, one day after Hamas (another Iranian proxy) slaughtered 1,200 Israelis. While all eyes have been on Gaza, there can be no doubt that this is a a coordinated two-front effort on the part of Iran’s proxies.
• Without knowing exactly what Israel’s response might be, here are some potential scenarios we might expect.
  • Israel Responds, Hezbollah Absorbs: While there could be some tough hours or days ahead, there is a chance that Hezbollah restrains itself. Perhaps more accurately, there is a chance that Iran restrains Hezbollah.
  • A Hostage Deal Dials Everything Back: We continue to hear about efforts by the CIA, Mossad, Egyptian intelligence, and the Hamas-financing government of Qatar to reach a hostage deal. Hezbollah has indicated for months that if there is a ceasefire in Gaza—one that results from a hostage deal or is struck under other terms—the group would cease firing upon Israel.
  • Amos Hochstein Prevails: For the last several months, the White House has deployed energy envoy Amos Hochstein to try to reach a diplomatic deal between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah to prevent a wider war. But with the benefit of hindsight, Hochstein’s effort should be seen for what it is: a failed attempt to appease Hezbollah. His current stab at haggling with the government of Lebanon with the goal of convincing Hezbollah to withdraw from south Lebanon to territory north of the Litani River and halting its aggression, are ongoing. But the Lebanese regime is a caretaker government that wields no power in a failing state controlled by Hezbollah.
  • A Limited War in Southern Lebanon: The conventional wisdom holds that neither Hezbollah nor Israel want a full-blown conflagration, given the devastation that such a war would likely leave in its wake. This is not wrong. The estimates suggest that thousands of Lebanese and Israeli citizens would die, with billions of dollars of damage incurred on both sides. This is why my Lebanese friends are convinced that there would be some sort of gentleman’s agreement in the war to come. Israel would only strike Hezbollah assets and infrastructure south of the Litani River, and Hezbollah would only strike Israeli assets in the country’s northern third.
  • A Big War in the North: This may be the most likely scenario if things escalate quickly. And it’s not pretty. Hezbollah has 200,000 rockets in its arsenal, thousands of drones, and an estimated 1,500 precision guided munitions that can strike military assets or even strategic infrastructure in Israel. To be clear: skyscrapers could fall. Hezbollah’s Radwan forces are highly trained and lethal; they have trained alongside the Russian and Iranian militaries. They could try to cross into Israel to conquer Israeli towns. The Israelis know what’s coming. They have plans to deal with all of it, and the future of Lebanon looks bleak as a result.
  • The Ring of Fire: There are no guarantees that a war in the north stays in the north. It’s not often acknowledged, but Israel is currently at war on no less than seven fronts. Iranian proxy forces in Gaza, Lebanon, West Bank, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen continue to attack Israel with various levels of intensity.
  • Nuclear Breakout: There is a school of thought in Israel which holds that there is only one reason Iran would deploy its most powerful proxy to wage war against Israel. Specifically, Hezbollah would only engage in a fight to the finish with Israel to prevent Israel from striking Iran as it endeavors to dash to a nuclear bomb.
• Link: The Terrifying Lebanon Scenarios

Once Hamas’s Sworn Enemy, a Palestinian Exile Rises as a Potential Postwar Strongman, by Summer Said, Fatima AbdulKarim, Stephen Kalin, in The Wall Street Journal

• Dahlan is a rare Palestinian leader who is independent of both Hamas, a U.S.-designated terrorist group, and the Palestinian Authority that runs parts of the West Bank, making him someone the Israeli government could potentially work with, said Israeli political analysts. And in Washington, where the George W. Bush administration saw him at the time as a future Palestinian president, some officials have privately touted him as a key player since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, sparking the war.
• Since the war began, he has ferried between the United Arab Emirates—a wealthy Gulf state that could help fund Gaza’s reconstruction and provide troops for an international stabilization force—and Egypt, whose border with Gaza and Israel makes it integral to the territory’s future. Dahlan has advised both countries’ leaders and benefited from their patronage.
• In Cairo, he has convened Gaza businessmen and the heads of rich families, who fled the conflict, to find ways to get desperately needed supplies into the territory. Companies and families in southeast Gaza that have historically been aligned with Dahlan have provided security to some commercial shipments.
• Dahlan has the charisma, street cred and connections across the political spectrum to be successful, said Aaron David Miller, a veteran U.S. peace negotiator in the Middle East. “He’s incredibly effective and could deliver under circumstances that would allow him to deliver,” he said, including a supportive Israeli government and backing from the U.S. and key Arab states.
• According to an option currently under consideration, Dahlan would oversee a Palestinian security force of 2,500 men working in coordination with an international force, as Israeli troops pull out, Arab officials said. The Palestinian forces would be vetted by the U.S., Israel and Egypt and wouldn’t have clear loyalties to the Palestinian Authority, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t want to control Gaza, the officials said.
• If successful, the force could expand to help with the reconstruction of Gaza, with training from the U.S. and Arab states, the officials added. Private Western security firms could also play a role, the officials said.
• Dahlan remains a rival of Abbas. Dimitri Diliani, a spokesman for Dahlan’s Democratic Reform Current, said the faction wants to relegate Abbas’s presidency to a ceremonial role. There must be room for Palestinian factions beyond Hamas and Abbas’s Fatah to have a say in Gaza’s future, Diliani said.
• Dahlan, who was arrested repeatedly by the Israelis for his involvement in the Fatah youth movement and learned to speak Hebrew in prison, was a close adviser to late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. He later had a falling-out with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and moved to the U.A.E. before he was convicted in the West Bank of corruption charges, which he denied.
• Link: Once Hamas’s Sworn Enemy, a Palestinian Exile Rises as a Potential Postwar Strongman: The Wall Street Journal

A Very Perilous Window in Clarity with Ambassador Michael Oren

• “In the Middle East, Iran’s axis of terror confronts America, Israel and our Arab friends,” Israeli Prime Minister declared in the first paragraph of his speech to the Joint Session of Congress. “In the Middle East, Iran is virtually behind all the terrorism, all the turmoil, all the chaos, all the killing.” Not unexpectedly, he revived his longstanding call for concerted action to prevent Iran from breaking out and producing nuclear weapons. Such action, though, might become necessary in the very near future, between today and January, 2025.
• In a previous Clarity article (“Who Should American Jews Vote For?”), I described how, on October 5, I told an audience in Dallas that Israel would soon be at war. The main reason, I explained, was the Biden Administration’s well-intentioned attempt to broker a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a treaty sweetened with the provision of American nuclear power to Riyadh. “If anybody thinks that Iran will sit passively while Saudi Arabia goes nuclear, they’re kidding themselves. Iran will start a war.” But there were other reasons as well: the political polarization-cum-paralysis in both the United States and Israel. Finally, there was the unfolding presidential elections. “The Iranians are watching the polls,” I concluded. “And they’re afraid of the return of Donald Trump.”
• Determined to block the proposed Israel-Saudi agreement, encouraged by the disarray within both Israel and the United States, the Iranians also concluded that they had roughly a year in which to act. And they did, sowing unprecedented instability throughout the Middle East, bloodying and isolating Israel and showcasing the West’s reluctance to project power.
• A Harris White House, the Iranians might reasonably assume, would likely uphold the Obama and Biden administrations’ policies toward the Islamic Republic. Still, the Ayatollahs cannot rule out the possibility that the Trump-Vance team will prevail. Not surprising, then, was the recent revelation of U.S. intelligence of an Iranian plot to assassinate Trump.
• If victorious, the Republican administration would not assume office until this January. From now until then, the Iranians believe, there is still a window for opportunity.
• For Israel, then, the next six months are exceedingly perilous. A nuclear Iran will irrevocably alter the balance of power not only in the Middle East but in the entire world. It will vastly restrict Israel’s ability to deter Iran’s many proxies which, henceforth, will operate under a deadly nuclear umbrella. And, yes, other countries in the region, not all of them friendly to Israel or even stable, will soon obtain Iran-like capabilities.
• Link: A Very Perilous Window: Clarity with Michael Oren

U.K.’s Policy on Israel, Long Aligned with America’s, Veers Away: by Mark Landler and Stephen Castle in The New York Times

• For 10 months, Britain’s Conservative government had moved almost in lock step with the United States in its response to Israel’s war in Gaza. Now, under its new Labour government, Britain is edging away from its closest ally on the conflict.
• Last week, Britain said it would restart funding for the main United Nations’ agency that aids Palestinians, UNRWA, having concluded that the agency had taken steps to ensure that it meets “the highest standards of neutrality.” The Israeli government had accused a dozen of the agency’s employees of playing a role in the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attacks on Israel or their aftermath.
• Analysts noted that Britain’s new government had not imposed concrete measures like halting weapons shipments to Israel. Officials have said they are awaiting the results of a legal review of whether Israel is violating human rights laws.
• Mr. Starmer has appointed Richard Hermer, a prominent human rights lawyer and close former colleague, as attorney general. Mr. Hermer will be highly influential in advising the prime minister on Israel, signing off on any legal intervention submitted to the International Criminal Court.
• The war in Gaza has put Mr. Starmer and the Labour Party into a tricky political position from the start. Mr. Starmer did not want to show daylight with the Conservative government on a major national security issue before the general election. He had also successfully cleansed Labour of a reputation for antisemitism in parts of its rank-and-file membership under the previous leader, Jeremy Corbyn, who was purged from the party over the issue.
• Mr. Starmer initially backed the government’s staunch support of Israel, along with a call for increased humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza. He later called for an immediate cease-fire, as did the government, but not soon enough to satisfy people on his party’s left or many Muslim Labour supporters.
• Link: U.K.’s Policy on Israel, Long Aligned With America’s, Veers Away: The New York Times

Will Hezbollah and Israel Go to War? by Dexter Filkins in The New Yorker

**written prior to Saturday’s attack

• The attacks at the border have forced tens of thousands of civilians to flee, emptying out Lebanese villages and Israeli kibbutzim. Hezbollah’s rhetoric has been increasingly bellicose. A video that the group released recently shows aerial photos and G.P.S. coördinates of Israeli targets—an airport, a seaport, a gas field, and a nuclear-research center—with crosshairs on them. In the video, Nasrallah says, “If a war is imposed on Lebanon, the resistance will fight without restraints, without rules, without limits.”
• Israeli officials, after focussing for months on subduing Hamas, say that they are contemplating a decisive pivot toward Hezbollah—what one Israeli general described to me as “the moment of truth.” During the 2006 war, Israel was frustrated by the limits of its intelligence on Hezbollah, particularly on the group’s network of underground bunkers and missile launchers. Now, a second Western official told me, “the Israeli intelligence has significantly improved, in terms of both individuals and infrastructure.” In a speech this spring, Nasrallah hinted at the extent of his opponents’ intelligence gathering. “Your smartphone hears everything you’re saying and takes all of your data,” he said. “It can find your precise location—which room you’re in, whether you’re in the front of the car or the back. Does Israel need more than that?” He issued a plea to his followers in the south: “Break your phone, my brother! Bury it. Put it in an iron box and lock it up.”
• Iran, seeing an opportunity, sent in Revolutionary Guard operatives, who began gathering together local Shiite militias, with the promise of confronting the Israelis. Robert Baer, who was then an officer for the C.I.A., told me that the recruits assembled in the Bekaa Valley, east of Beirut, at a military installation called the Sheikh Abdullah barracks. The alliance that they formed became known as Hezbollah. Its foundational document, the “Open Letter to the Oppressed,” is the cry of a downtrodden group vowing to avenge what it saw as years of injustice at the hands of Israel and the West. Its authors pledged to fight until “the Zionist entity” was destroyed.
• Abbas al-Musawi, who took control of the group, was a Shiite cleric who had sworn affinity to wilayat al-faqih, a doctrine that gave Iran’s Grand Ayatollah unlimited power over his followers. “Iran and Hezbollah are totally coördinated in every way,” a senior American diplomat told me. “They sing from the same song sheet.”
• Hezbollah has few tanks and no air force; it relies on missiles, drones, and a deep reserve of fighters. Its leaders claim to have a hundred thousand troops. Western officials estimate that the real number may be closer to sixty thousand, divided among active fighters, reservists, and villagers who might be willing to pick up a gun if called upon. The core of the force is composed of fighters who are recruited as young as grade-school age, then trained and indoctrinated for years before being deployed to protect Shiite interests in Lebanon or abroad.
• A recent paper, from the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University, in Herzliya, estimated that, even without Iranian assistance, Hezbollah could fire three thousand missiles a day into Israel for weeks on end. The senior American official noted that Israeli leaders believe they could destroy most of Hezbollah’s long-range missiles in a week to ten days. But in that period, he added, Hezbollah would be firing missiles every day. A former American military officer familiar with Israel’s preparations told me that its leaders would likely prioritize defending such sensitive installations as seaports, electrical plants, and the nuclear reactor at Dimona, leaving population centers more open to attack. “There would be many civilian deaths on both sides,” he said. “Much of Lebanon would be destroyed.”
• A final variable is Israel’s national psyche, which was profoundly damaged by the government’s failure to protect the country on October 7th. In the week I spent there, the resolve to subdue Hamas appeared undiminished, but a mood of self-doubt seemed to grip the country. In one conversation, I asked a senior Israeli national-security official how he could be sure of Hezbollah’s condition. “We are confident,” he said—and then stopped himself. “But we are not bragging about our intelligence. Especially not after October 7th. We have good capabilities, but we must be humble.”
• Link: Will Hezbollah and Israel Go to War?: The New Yorker

Lessons for Postwar Gaza from the American Experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan: by Ronald E. Neumann in The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune

• If Israel is not to administer Gaza then another entity must do so. Some Israelis have considered growing a government out of the Gaza clans. The Biden Administration has called for a role for the Palestinian Authority (PA). The experience of Iraq and Afghanistan raises serious questions about both ideas.
• Without forces of their own, they will be dependent on others. If they turn to Israel, they become puppets of a detested outsider. If they must turn to Arab forces or other outsiders, then they will find that they cannot depend on orders being followed because other nations will not simply abandon their authority over their own forces.
• In both Iraq and Afghanistan, where there was much stronger leadership from the US than a clan government is likely to have, the forces of Canada, UK, Germany, Spain, Italy and others each responded to separate national directions and separate “red cards”—i.e., things they would not do without specific permission from their own governments. Such approval was rarely given and never quickly.
• The history of Arab forces is more limited but not more inspiring. UAE special forces in Afghanistan were comparatively effective but most other Arab force presences were largely symbolic, unwilling to engage quickly or effectively. In Yemen, Saudi and UAE forces obeyed different political directives from home and developed separate political alliances.
• Does this mean that reform is impossible? No, but it does underline the importance of local leadership committed to better governance for their own reasons. In the Philippines, President Ramon Magsaysay became famous for the kinds of governmental reforms and personnel appointments so critical to reform and to suppression of an insurgency. But in the case of Vietnam, when his friend and sometimes mentor, Edward Lansdale tried to persuade Vietnam President Ngo Dinh Diem to follow similar policies, the effort was largely unsuccessful. Ghana and Rwanda also show that reform and improvement in governance is possible but, as in the Philippines, the essential element is the determination of the national leader.
• Even without a single, dynamic change in leaders, changes in political culture have happened. Taiwan and Korea have each moved from kleptocratic authoritarian governments to functioning and prosperous democracies. But these changes took decades. Without either long term changes in culture or dramatic changes in leadership, similar success stories are hard to find.
• This leads to some difficult issues. Hamas is likely to survive as at least a low-level movement with violent potential. The Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is still active, and a mapping of militant groups in Gaza lists several others and new ones may arise. A force that can successfully confront them will need to meet several requirements.
• In the case of Gaza, there will be an additional issue. Israel can be expected to have repeated and strong demands for action of the security force on a wide range of recurring issues. Israel will have very good reasons to strike unilaterally if it perceives a threat. These day-to-day challenges will require prompt and decisive responses. That suggests some necessary elements. One is that the force providing security has the unity of command to respond effectively to challenges. If it has to seek guidance from some form of committee it is likely to be crippled and the Israelis will not be patient partners.
• This does not mean that US tactical forces must be employed. It does mean that US personnel will need to play a role in the overall operation of fielding a security force, managing its operations on the ground, and coordinating with the political authority. There is no other country with the required political weight and acceptance to play this role. If the current Biden Administration insistence on “no boots on the ground” prevents such a US role the odds against success will rise to dizzying heights.
• Link: Lessons for Postwar Gaza from the American Experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan: The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune

Palestinian Authority recognition makes 899 Gazans eligible for Pay-for-Slay by Itamar Marcus and Ephraim D. Tepler with Palestinian Media Watch

• 9,750 terrorist prisoners are now recognized by the PA as eligible for monthly terror rewards, up from 4,300 prior to October 7
• Palestinian Media Watch calculates that once the processing of the new prisoners is complete, the PA will be paying a minimum of 59,560,000 shekels (about $16.4 million) a month in salaries to terrorist prisoners, up from 52,000,000 shekels (about $14.3 million) a month prior to October 7.
• The PA has recognized Hamas’ Martyr count, and a total of 38,983 new Martyrs’ families are currently eligible for terror rewards
• This means nearly 55 million shekels in additional monthly payments to the families of Martyrs
• The PA rewards terrorist prisoners a salary of 1,400 shekels a month for the first 3 years in prison, and the salary gradually rises to 12,000 after 30 years. The PA pays an additional 300 shekels/month for each wife, 50 shekels/month per child, 300 shekels/month extra for residents of Jerusalem, and 500 shekels/month extra for Israeli Arabs.

• Even if the PA is unable to get payment to the families of the Gaza Martyrs right away, it will be registered as a debt, and PMW has shown that the PA does its best to pay the terror salaries as soon as possible. In February 2024, PMW reported that the PA was so anxious to start rewarding newly arrested terrorists that it announced that it was bypassing its own regulations and processing requirements in order to be able to pay them immediately.
• Link: Palestinian Authority recognition makes 899 Gazans eligible for Pay-for-Slay

Antisemitism

• The Foundation to Combat Antisemitism (FCAS) publishes weekly information from over 300 million online data sources including public social media, traditional media, websites, blogs, forums, and more. The bigger the phrase on the above image, the more total mentions it had in the time period.

I’m Jewish—I’m Nervous About Going Back to College, by Vanderbilt student, Ilana Drake for Newsweek

• While my campus [Vanderbilt] has fared better than other campuses, such as Columbia University and Harvard University, it has not all been smooth sailing. The Students Supporting Israel chapter was excluded from our Multicultural Leadership Council, and I noticed that antisemitism arose in some of the events I attended and classes in which I participated. Recently, our student government shared a statement that I and many Jewish and non-Jewish students found to be hurtful.
• In Nashville, white supremacists gathered on two subsequent weekends in downtown Nashville. While many of my Jewish peers at Vanderbilt and I live on campus during the school year, we are not immune to what occurs outside our immediate vicinity and the broader community.
• Because of my remote high school experience, my senior year in college is expected to make up for the gap. I worry that the encampment that stayed up until early May will reappear on campus. I am afraid that round two of the rhetoric around the Israel-Hamas war will be more tense and harm Jewish students on campus. As we enter the upcoming election and look towards the fall, the warm temperature in Nashville might become hotter.
• Link: I’m Jewish—I’m Nervous About Going Back to College: Newsweek

Anti-Israel Protesters Make Netanyahu’s Point, by The Editorial Board of The Wall Street Journal

• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered an impressive speech to Congress on Wednesday, making the case for Israel’s just war and laying out a reasonable plan for what’s next. Israelis can be proud; Americans, less so.
• It began Tuesday evening, when anti-Israel activists targeted Mr. Netanyahu’s hotel. “BON APPETIT!!” the Palestinian Youth Movement wrote on Instagram, “Mealworms and maggots (not talking about Netanyahu) were left on their banquet tables, and crickets were released on multiple floors of the hotel.” We feel bad for the hotel staff and also for U.S. taxpayers: Donations to the charity that controls this group remain tax-deductible.
• On Wednesday a mob outside Union Station tore down U.S. flags and burned one to chants of “Allahu akbar.” In place of Old Glory, they sent up the flag of Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organization. The mob defaced federal property, writing slogans such as “Hamas is comin” on the Christopher Columbus monument and “Qassam, Qassam, make us proud,” cheering Hamas’s military wing, on the American Legion’s Freedom Bell. A protester shouted on video about killing the Jews. A few waved Hamas and Hezbollah flags.
• The obscene acts underscored Mr. Netanyahu’s point that “many anti-Israel protesters choose to stand with evil. They stand with Hamas.” To their fellow travelers, he said, “You have officially become Iran’s useful idiots.” Sen. Chris Murphy criticized these lines as unfair, only to have to condemn the “pro-Hamas cheers” hours later.
• Vice President Kamala Harris, who skipped the speech to address a sorority, lauded the anti-Israel protest movement earlier this month: “They are showing exactly what the human emotion should be, as a response to Gaza.” On Thursday she, too, condemned the “despicable acts.” How about prosecutions? Credit to House Speaker Mike Johnson, who led several Republicans to Union Station on Wednesday night to raise new American flags.
• Link: Anti-Israel Protesters Make Netanyahu’s Point: The Wall Street Journal

I want to again thank Ethan Karlovsky, a junior finance major at Rice University in Houston. Ethan has not only helped prepare these updates, but also is a strong advocate for Jewish students on his campus and beyond. We continue to be proud of Ethan and appreciate his leadership and commitment to our community.