Situational Update

• Per Barak Ravid at Axios: President Biden, the Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and the President of Egypt Abdel Fattah al-Sisi are calling on Israel and Hamas to take part in a final round of negotiations next week to finalize a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, the three leaders said in a joint statement on Thursday. The Israeli Prime Minister’s office said “Israel will send on August 15 its negotiations team to a place to be determined, to finalize the details for the implementation of the framework of the Gaza hostage deal.”
• A train of top Biden administration officials is planning to head to the Middle East for a dramatic week of high-stakes diplomacy to try to prevent war in the region and secure a hostage and ceasefire deal in Gaza. The results of the coming week will indicate whether the region is going to sink even deeper into crisis and a widening perpetual war, — or if, for the first time since Oct. 7, there will be a significant change of course. The outcome could shape President Biden’s legacy. Israeli officials said the talks on Thursday are “a now-or-never” moment for a deal.
• Washington is set to provide Israel with $3.5 billion to spend on US weapons and military equipment, releasing the money months after it was appropriated by the US Congress, CNN reported on Friday, citing sources familiar with the matter. The State Department notified lawmakers on Thursday night that the government intended to release the billions of dollars worth of foreign military financing to Israel, CNN reported, adding that the money comes from the $14.1 billion supplemental funding bill for Israel passed in April.

Israel at the Olympics

After heading to the Paris Olympics under the shadow of death threats and expected provocations, Israel wrapped up its best ever Games on Sunday with a record seven medals: 1 gold, 5 silver and 1 bronze.

US Olympic gold medalist Amit Elor confronts antisemitism after historic victory in the Jerusalem Post

• US Olympic wrestling gold medalist Amit Elor spoke out against antisemitism on Thursday after largely refraining from discussing her Jewish identity ahead of the games.
• “Eighty years ago, my grandparents survived the Holocaust, but antisemitism is still all around us,” Elor said in a video posted to Instagram and TikTok. The clip included a comment directed against her, saying, “You belong in the gas chamber,” with an inverted red triangle, a Hamas symbol, posted by an account featuring exclusively anti-Israel posts.
• “My grandparents won. I won,” Elor said, holding up her gold medal, her face still battered from her Olympic bouts.
• Link: US Olympic gold medalist Amit Elor confronts antisemitism after victory

Daria Atamanov from the Israeli team performing in rhythmic gymnastics with the chilling prayer “Shir La-Maalot” (A song of ascents)

The Numbers

Casualties

• 1,657 Israelis dead (+1 since Wednesday) including 689 IDF soldiers (329 IDF soldiers during the ground operation in Gaza: thankfully no change since Wednesday)
  • One Israeli was killed and another hurt in West Bank terror attack today
• Additional Information (according to the IDF):
  • 2,202 (+12 since Wednesday) IDF soldiers have been injured during ground combat in Gaza, including at least 417 (+3 since Wednesday) who have been severely injured.
  • 4,306 (+34 since Wednesday) IDF soldiers have been injured since the beginning of the war, including at least 640 (+3 since Wednesday) who have been severely injured.

• Note: we have always included the number of casualties in Gaza, as reported by the Gaza Health Ministry. We feel it is important to include this information with the caveat that this reporting ministry is not a trusted source of data by many. Most recently, The United Nations has begun citing a much lower death toll for women and children in Gaza, acknowledging that it has incomplete information about many of the people killed during Israel’s military offensive in the territory.
  • According to unverified figures from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, 39,790 (+113 since Wednesday) people have been killed in Gaza, and 92,002 (+357 since Wednesday) have been injured during the war.
  • We also encourage you to read this well documented piece from Tablet published in March: How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers
  • The Associated Press, an outlet with a demonstrated anti-Israel bias, conducted an analysis of alleged Gaza death tolls released by the Hamas-controlled “Gaza Health Ministry.” The analysis found that “9,940 of the dead – 29% of its April 30 total – were not listed in the data” and that “an additional 1,699 records in the ministry’s April data were incomplete and 22 were duplicates.”

Hostages (no change since Wednesday)

• On October 7^th, a total of 261 Israelis were taken hostage.
• During the ceasefire deal in November, 112 hostages were released.
• A total of 7 hostages have been rescued and the remains of 21 others have been recovered. Tragically, 3 have been mistakenly killed by the IDF, and 1 was killed during an IDF attempt to rescue him.
• 49 hostages have been confirmed dead.
• This leaves an estimated 111-112 hostages still theoretically in Gaza, with somewhere between (assumed) 33-41 deceased. Thus, at most, 82 living hostages could still be in Gaza.
  • According to an article published in the WSJ, “Of the approximately 250 hostages taken in the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack, 116 continue to be held captive, including many believed to be dead. Mediators in the hostage talks and a U.S. official familiar with the latest U.S. intelligence said the number of those hostages still alive could be as low as 50.”
  • That assessment, based in part on Israeli intelligence, would mean 66 of those still held hostage could be dead, 25 more than Israel has publicly acknowledged.
  • Link: Families of Hostages in Gaza Are Desperate for News but Dread a Phone Call | WSJ

(Sources: JINSA, FDD, IDF, AIPAC, The Paul Singer Foundation, The Institute for National Security Studies, the Alma Research and Education Center, Yediot, Jerusalem Post, IDF Casualty Count, and the Times of Israel)

Listen

[PODCAST] Call Me Back with Dan Senor: What’s the Iran strategy? – with Nadav Eyal and Matt Levitt

• Tensions have been high in Israel over the past week, as Israelis brace for a response from Iran and Hezbollah, following last week’s assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and Fuad Shukr in Lebanon. This attack was anticipated to have already taken place, and may happen at any moment.
• To help us understand the extent to which Israel and the U.S. have prepared for this new phase, we are joined by Nadav Eyal and Matt Levitt.

  Nadav Eyal is a columnist for Yediot. He has been covering Middle-Eastern and international politics for the last two decades for Israeli radio, print and television news. Dr. Matthew Levitt is the director of the Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

• Link: Call Me Back – with Dan Senor: What’s the Iran strategy?

Watch

[WATCH] Is the Two-State Solution Still Viable: with Ambassador Dennis Ross and Mohammed Dajani Daoudi debating Elliott Abrams and Fleur Hassan-Nahoum

• This debate was pre-recorded as an exclusive live event on July 16, 2024
• As the war between Israel and Hamas is ongoing, the nonpartisan debate series Open to Debate in partnership with the Council on Foreign Relations is taking a closer look at one proposed solution to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The two-state solution proposes a sovereign State of Palestine alongside the State of Israel and aims to address the territorial disputes, security concerns, and national aspirations of both Israelis and Palestinians. However, many have questioned whether this plan is still possible, especially during the Israel-Gaza war happening now. Those who believe it’s still possible argue that it’s the most logical path toward achieving sustainable peace and fulfilling the national self-determination rights of both Israelis and Palestinians while respecting international laws and U.N. resolutions. Those who believe it is no longer possible argue that the ongoing violence, West Bank settlement expansions, lack of trust, and failure of previous negotiation attempts such as the Oslo Accords make having both states impractical.
• Link: Is the Two-State Solution Still Viable? – Open to Debate

[WATCH] Hostage survivor Maya Regev inspires

• 10 months after being shot, kidnapped, and tortured by Palestinian terrorists — torture that included caustic burns inside the wound and insertion of a knife into her exposed bone— Maya Regev still cannot walk without crutches. But she can finally use that leg. Small victory.

[WATCH] London: Muslims warn the entire Jewish community in Britain that their turn to be beheaded as a human sacrifice for Allah’ sake is coming soon.

• They chanted in Arabic: “Khaybar Khaybar, ya yahud, Jaish Muhammad, sa yahud (Translation: Jews, remember Khaybar the army of Muhammad is coming to kill you too).”
• A great post in response from Joe Lonsdale: It’s hard to capture in words the perversity of UK govt proudly arresting people for retweeting things they don’t like, jailing partisans for being noisy on the right, while they allow this in the streets without arrests. The red-black alliance is a growing threat of our times.

 

Rocket Alerts in Israel tracks the number of rockets fired and UAV’s entering Israel.

• Since August 1st, Hezbollah has caused 294 rocket alerts (65 just yesterday) and Hamas has caused 30
• Rocket Alerts increased by 58 since Wednesday
• UAV Alerts by increased by 70 since Wednesday

  

What We Are Reading

Netanyahu at War, by Eric Cortellessa in Time 

• But in the wake of the worst slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust, with more than 40,000 Gazans dead in the ensuing conflict, Israel under Netanyahu is not blessed with peace but besieged by war. As we speak, the country is on edge for an expected aerial attack from Iran, the second in four months. Shops are shuttered, and pedestrians stay within sprinting distance of bomb shelters. The fighting is ongoing in Gaza, with more than 100 hostages still held by Hamas. Much to the frustration of the Biden Administration, Netanyahu still has not articulated a credible plan to end the war or a vision for how the Israelis and the Palestinians can peacefully coexist. Instead, he’s bracing for escalating conflict on even more fronts: in the north with Hezbollah in Lebanon; in the Gulf with the Houthis in Yemen; and most of all, with Israel’s nemesis Iran. “We’re facing not merely Hamas,” Netanyahu says. “We’re facing a full-fledged Iranian axis, and we understand that we have to organize ourselves for broader defense.”
• The story of how Israel arrived at this precarious moment is entwined with Netanyahu’s personal ambitions and vulnerabilities. In the months before Oct. 7, Israeli society was sundered by his support of right-wing legislation diminishing the power of the Supreme Court. The collective trauma of the Hamas attack may have brought Jewish Israelis together, but deepened doubts about their Prime Minister, with 72% saying he should resign, either now or after the war, according to a July poll for Israel’s most watched television station. Abroad, the toll of the Gaza war can be tallied in Israel’s increasing isolation: arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant sought by the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes; American college campuses convulsed by anti-Israel protests, the largest of their kind since Vietnam; antisemitism rising around the globe.
• If the war in Gaza widens into a regional conflict, the consequences for Israel and the world would be dangerously unpredictable. The U.S. and the West risk being dragged into another Middle East quagmire. Israelis increasingly worry that the war supposedly launched to save Israel will imperil it. Among their most profound fears is that the cycle of violence and the perception it shapes of Israel for the next generation will cause lasting damage to its survival and its soul.
• For Netanyahu, who says he’s waging an existential war, it’s a risk he recognizes, but one he’s willing to take. “Being destroyed has bigger implications about Israel’s security,” he says. “I’d rather have bad press than a good obituary.”
• The two goals could intersect in Netanyahu’s vague plan for a postwar Gaza. Once Hamas is out of power, he says, he wants to recruit Arab countries to help install a civilian Palestinian governing entity that wouldn’t pose a threat to Israel. “I’d like to see a civilian administration run by Gazans, perhaps with the support of regional partners,” says Netanyahu. “Demilitarization by Israel, civilian administration by Gaza.”
• The fates of Israelis and Palestinians remain inextricably intertwined. If Israel does not find a way to peacefully separate from the millions of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, it faces a future of either absorbing them as citizens and losing its Jewish majority, or depriving them of the rights and freedoms afforded to the Jewish population and losing its democracy.
• Link: Exclusive: Benjamin Netanyahu at War

The full inside story of how Israel assassinated Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran – minute by minute, by Elon Perry in The Jewish Chronicle

• Reports have suggested that the device was placed in Haniyeh’s room weeks or months before the explosion. This is wrong. Security cameras show it was placed on the day of the explosion, at 4:23 pm – some nine hours before it was activated when Haniyeh entered his room. The explosion, which was set off remotely by a robot, took place after midnight, at exactly 1:37am local time.
• To prevent possible detection, the Mossad planted a flat brick explosive, 3 inches wide by 6 inches long, that was fastened to the bottom of the bed. To minimize harming innocent civilians, they used a bomb known for its precision which targeted only Haniyeh’s room. As a result, only one specific area of the building was damaged.
• Following the decision to carry out Haniyeh’s assassination, the Mossad began searching for a suitable opportunity to strike. It emerged when Haniyeh was invited to Tehran for the new Iranian president’s inauguration. The Mossad, with the assistance of intelligence unit 8200 (the IDF unit responsible for clandestine operations), intercepted phone calls between the organisers of the inauguration and the invited guests. When Haniyeh confirmed his arrival, the Mossad began executing the plan: eliminate Haniyeh in the guest house where he usually stayed during his visits to Tehran.
• Following the assassination, Iranian security authorities raided the guesthouse compound, arresting 28 senior military officials, and headquarters personnel who were present. All their electronic gadgets were confiscated to search their communications. The Iranian agents scanned the entire facility inch by inch and analysed the security cameras frame by frame. When they discovered that members of the IRGC were involved, they were not surprisingly enraged. The next day, when they threatened to inflict serious punishment on Israel, this was as much to do with the humiliation as because of the death of a senior Hamas official they were hosting.
• The Mossad had multiple opportunities to eliminate Haniyeh in Qatar. But Israel refrained from doing so because Qatar served as a vital negotiator between Hamas and Israel over the hostage crisis. Carrying out an assassination on Qatari soil might embarrass Qatar and jeopardize any future peace accord between Israel and Qatar that had been under discussion before the Gaza war.
• Link: The full inside story of how Israel assassinated Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran – minute by minute: The Jewish Chronicle

Hamas’s Messianic Violence, by Hussein Aboubakr in Mosaic Magazine

• Published on October 10^th, 2023 in Mosaic: Since his death last week, former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh has been characterized by much of the Western press as a pragmatic moderate who sought to complete a hostage deal. In reality, he was a vicious anti-Semite who spent his life trying to help Hamas murder Jews. This truth was crystallized in an address Haniyeh gave shortly after October 7, when he praised the attacks and called on Muslims around the world to “join the fight . . . of the men who are writing history with their blood and their rifles.” To the Egyptian intellectual Hussein Aboubakr, that short speech was also a very clear articulation of Hamas’s messianic vision, in which even the most barbaric forms of violence are deemed morally righteous.
• Two things were immediately noticeable: the attempts of Hamas to portray its massacres as the beginning of the Islamic redemptive battle for Palestine and the quick, enthusiastic response by many pro-Palestinian activists, both in the Middle East and the West, religious and secular. From the comfort of his office in Qatar, Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh, gave a fifteen-minute speech—aired on Al Jazeera—in which he praised the actions of the terrorists and asserted, “This battle is not only for the Palestinian people or only for Gaza. Gaza is merely the lever of resistance, . . . but since this is about al-Aqsa mosque, it is the battle of the [Islamic] nation. I call upon all the nation’s children, no matter where they are, to join the fight . . . of the men who are writing history with their blood and their rifles.”
• For 75 years, the Israel-Palestinian conflict has been interpreted in just such ways—by Arab nationalists, by Islamic fundamentalists, and by Western revolutionaries. Today there are countless people who, under the influence such thinking, cannot see the events playing out except through dramatic narratives of historical humiliation, dispossession, and resistance. Rational questions—e.g., how does going door to door slaughtering people in their homes improve material conditions in Gaza?—don’t figure into such thinking. Thus you have, for instance, 31 student organizations at Harvard responding to Saturday’s invasion by condemning Israel.
• Link: Hamas’s Messianic Violence: Mosaic Magazine

The PA Has Only Itself to Blame: A Response to “The Palestinian Authority Is Collapsing” by Elliot Abrams and Sander R. Gerber, Managing Partner, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer at Hudson Bay Capital

• To properly address the disarray of the PA and salvage any hope of a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it is time to engage in an honest evaluation of the authority’s actions.
• The authors cite the PA’s financial troubles as a primary cause of its dysfunction and blame them on Israel. What they neglect to mention, however, is that in 2018, the last year that the PA made its budget public, $350 million—seven percent of the total—was reserved to pay terrorists who killed or injured civilians in Israel or members of the Israel Defense Forces, and to pay the families of those terrorists.
• …civil servants are suffering with 50 percent salary cuts, the authority continues to pay terrorists and their families 100 percent of their stipends.
• According to Article 5 of Palestinian Authority Decree Law No. 1 of 2013, the PA is required to employ any males who have served at least ten years and females who have served at least five years in Israeli prisons for their “struggle against the occupation”—and at salaries no less than the monthly “pay for slay” stipends they received in prison. The more time they spent in prison—that is, the graver their terrorist acts—the higher their job placement and the greater their seniority.
• Link: The PA Has Only Itself to Blame | Foreign Affairs

Hezbollah’s Deadly Rockets Aren’t the Most Serious Threat to Israel’s Northern Border, by Matthew Levitt in The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

• The immediate crisis is a result of what Israeli officials say was a Hezbollah rocket attack that killed 12 Israeli Druze youths. Since the day after Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre, Hezbollah has been firing rockets into Israel almost daily. While the majority of the strikes have used anti-tank guided missiles, the group has also used longer-range, more powerful munitions provided by Iran. That was apparently the case on July 27, when Hezbollah is accused of firing an Iranian Falaq-1 rocket toward the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and striking a soccer field and playground in the Druze community of Majdal Shams. (Though Israel released data on the rocket and its trajectory that tie it to Hezbollah, the group has issued a rare denial of responsibility for the attack.)
• And yet there is hope for de-escalation. The factors that have prevented Hezbollah from opening a full-fledged second front for Israel since October still hold true. Lebanon continues to suffer a devastating economic (and political) crisis, and most of its citizens don’t want Hezbollah to drag the country into what would probably be a terribly destructive war. And while Iran is happy to fight to the last Arab proxy, its leaders don’t want war to spill over their own borders.
• They have good reason for concern. The Hamas massacre came straight out of Hezbollah’s playbook. The Israeli military has been actively training for years to counter a Hezbollah plot to overrun Israeli communities, kill and kidnap civilians, and undermine Israel’s sense of security. Part of what was unexpected about Oct. 7 was that it happened on the southern rather than the northern border. Moreover, after its 2006 war with Israel, Hezbollah built an arsenal of some 150,000 rockets, deployed forces throughout southern Lebanon and otherwise violated a U.N. Security Council resolution meant to prevent further conflict.
• Across the country and its political spectrum, Israelis agree that they can no longer live with a gun to their heads, not from the south or from the north. The idea that enemies sworn to destroy them can be allowed to amass massive arsenals on their borders is no longer tenable. That means that Israel will ultimately have to address both Hezbollah’s rocket stockpile and its 30,000-strong standing militia. And it’s the latter that’s more likely to drag Israel into a war that most Israelis and Lebanese don’t want.
• Link: Hezbollah’s Deadly Rockets Aren’t the Most Serious Threat to Israel’s Northern Border

Most Israelis support hostage deal to end Gaza war, new poll shows by Eve Young with the Jerusalem Post

• Some 59% of voters said that they support Israel making an immediate hostage deal that includes ending the Israel-Hamas war, according to an August poll released Wednesday by the Hostage Family Forum, conducted by the Midgam polling institute led by Mano Geva. This is compared to 33% of all voters who oppose such a deal, with the rest undecided.
• Some 68% of the Israeli public polled thinks that the Israeli government should make a deal to bring back the hostages when asked: “What should Israel’s government do now?” This is compared to 23% of the population who answered that destroying Hamas is what the government should “do now.”
• Link: Majority of Israelis support a hostage deal to end war with Hamas

Iran Conflict Highlights Israel’s Precarious Position Between Russia and China by Keren Setton in The Media Line

• Israel faces a delicate balancing act between Russia and China as it braces for potential conflict with Iran, being careful not to alienate key global powers while preparing for a regional escalation
• Israel has been maintaining a delicate balancing act with Russia and China for many years. It has been under American pressure to distance itself from its two rivals and align more clearly with the West. A wide range of Israeli interests has led successive governments to resist this pressure, often putting the Jewish state in a tricky position.
• “China used October 7th mainly against the US, as a chance to poke the US in the eye and show American double standard regarding human rights,” Galia Lavi, a researcher and Deputy Director of The Diane & Guilford Glazer Israel-China Policy Center at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) told The Media Line. “China portrays itself as promoting peace while depicting the US as war-mongering by supplying Israel with weapons, making matters worse. For China, Israel is the stick with which it hits the US in the Middle East.” Hours after Hamas’ attack, China’s reaction did not condemn Hamas and maintained its even-handed approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, disappointing Israel.
• A recent poll conducted by the INSS showed a majority of Israelis view China as unfriendly to Israel, highlighting the sense of insult they felt in the aftermath of October 7th.
• “China will not like such an escalation between Iran and Israel, which will be seen as a dramatic regional development that they will want to avoid and are likely making diplomatic efforts to de-escalate as we speak,” Lahav said.
• Russia will likely strive for less neutrality.
• Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine over two years ago, Israel has tip-toed between the sides, trying not to offend while simultaneously condemning helping Ukraine but not giving it all it wants, all while safeguarding Israel’s own geopolitical interests and maintaining its strategic alliances with the United States. Israel denounced the Russian invasion but did not join the sanctions regime put in place by Western countries.
• “Russia not only supplies Iran with weapons but continues to supply Tehran with what it needs to obtain nuclear capabilities.” According to Lisnyansky, Russia has clearly chosen its sides.
• “The more Russia accumulates power in the axis opposing the US, together with Iran, China, and North Korea, Israel’s global status will decline,” said Lisnyansky. “The more the US will be viewed as a declining power, so will Israel. This means Israel needs to continue to maneuver between the two camps.”
• Link: Iran Conflict Highlights Israel’s Precarious Position Between Russia and China

[WARNING: EMOTIONAL TESTIMONY]: Mourning the Children Killed in Majdal Shams, by Hillel Kuttler in Tablet Magazine

• In the living room of his home in Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights sit two trophies for being his class’s top pupil. Milar adored Marvel characters and slept with a stuffed Spider-Man. He wrote “I love you” notes to his mother. He dreamed of becoming a professional soccer player. When his teacher gave each child a white T-shirt to decorate before the 2022 World Cup, Milar went all-Lionel Messi, painting the soccer star’s name in English, his No. 10 within a heart, and a uniformed Messi at play. The extended family watched Argentina’s World Cup victory on television at Milar’s grandmother’s house, the boy wearing a Messi jersey to cheer on his hero.
• Soccer, and war, ended Milar’s life on Saturday evening, July 27. The family was at a barbecue, and Milar wanted to leave for practice. His mother, Lena, refused. Milar persisted. His sister drove him home to change from the purple Emirates jersey and shorts he wore into his local team’s uniform, and onto the field.
• Practice began at 6 p.m. At 6:18, an Iranian-produced Falaq rocket shot from Lebanon by Hezbollah struck the field. It killed 12 children ages 10–16, all Druze. Eleven of the 12 lived in Majdal Shams.
• Mayar Shufi, who is dating Milar’s sister, rushed from the barbecue to a clinic to which several of the gravely wounded people—all children but for their coach—were taken. In one room, Shufi saw two boys and two girls dead, some missing limbs. He entered another room and found Milar, intact but barely alive, his body punctured by shrapnel.
• “He opened his eyes and looked at me,” Shufi told me. “He took a deep breath, and I knew he died.”
• Multiple white sashes were visible at the beit ha’am (people’s building) in the center of town, where bereaved families gathered as one unit each afternoon during the week of mourning between 4 and 7 p.m. to receive people coming to comfort them. Some of the visitors there and at the mourners’ homes were Jews who’d traveled from throughout Israel.
• As I circled back toward the goal near the main gate, a man rushed up and pressed into my hands five tiny tin-encased candles, each containing a half-inch depth of wax, at most. I stepped to a memorial of pictures and objects, and crouched beside a white shelf lying upon the turf. I took several larger candles there and arrayed them in a circle around my baby tins as shields from the breeze, took a lighter sitting there, flicked it to produce a weak flame, and touched it to a wick.
• The wind snuffed out the fire, then another and another. I cupped a hand around the lighter’s head to shield each flame. I moved the large candle holders into a tighter circle, a more protective wall. I tried other lighters. At best, here and there, a wick remained lit for two seconds before the wind extinguished it.
• I departed, unable to protect the tiny candles.
• Link: Mourning the Children Killed in Majdal Shams: Tablet Magazine

We need a new discussion about Iran’s nuclear weapons work, a research report by The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), by David Albright and Sarah Burkhard

• U.S. intelligence is shielding the Biden-Harris administration from having to take serious action on Iran’s nuclear program. For years, they clamored repeatedly that Iran was not “currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.” Now, it has shifted slightly to Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.” While hinting at nuclear weapon activities taking place, it is focusing on public Iranian statements and old news on Iran’s capabilities to produce weapon-grade uranium, while continuing to avoid any type of public discussion on what nuclear weaponization activities Iran may be undertaking.
• If the U.S. is serious about its goal to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon, detecting nuclear weaponization activities is increasingly significant as a trigger to act. But the current U.S. unclassified intelligence assessments are so limited that it seems like the U.S. assessment is unmindful of the current risk.
• The gap in open discussion leaves the flawed 2007 NIE as the last word, although we have learned so much since. The on/off nature of that assessment misses Iran’s gradual whittling down of the time needed to make a bomb and the steps needed to make one; an effort that should be seen as a program, albeit different from one actively building a weapon. The NIE took a far too narrow definition of a nuclear weapons program, as only weaponization and covert nuclear plants. Yet, even in its own narrow definition, it never followed up after missing the latter in the guise of what we now know as Fordow.
• To be able to put potentially weaponization related activities and new breakout capabilities in context and adequately assess the threat, we cannot leave the 2007 NIE assessment as the last word. We need a new, honest public discussion on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities and the technical and diplomatic structure Tehran has put in place that would allow it to quickly build nuclear weapons while the United States is paralyzed in its attempts to avoid a crisis.
• Link: We need a new discussion about Iran’s nuclear weapons work

Per AIPAC, A new report from the U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNI), titled Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Capability and Terrorism Monitoring Act of 2022, says that Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.” It adds that Iran “has the infrastructure and experience to quickly produce weapons-grade uranium, at multiple facilities, if it chooses to do so.” The report represents a shift from prior DNI reports that repeatedly concluded, “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.” Meanwhile, a separate U.S. intelligence report from last month, titled Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Capability and Terrorism Monitoring Act of 2022—Assessment Regarding the Regional and Global Terrorism of the Islamic Republic of Iran, highlights the significant non-nuclear threats posed by Iran — including arming and funding terrorist proxies, threats to Americans and our allies, support for U.S. adversaries, and interference in American elections and politics.

• Iran uses its nuclear program for negotiation leverage and to respond to perceived international pressure. During the past year, it has modulated its production and inventory of 60-percent uranium. Tehran has said it would restore JCPOA limits if the United States fulfilled its JCPOA commitments and the IAEA closed its outstanding safeguards investigations.
• Iran continues to increase the size of its uranium stockpile, increase its enrichment capacity, and develop, manufacture, and operate advanced centrifuges. Tehran has the infrastructure and experience to quickly produce weapons-grade uranium, at multiple facilities, if it chooses to do so.
• Iran probably will consider installing more advanced centrifuges, further increasing its enriched uranium stockpile, or enriching uranium up to 90 percent in response to additional sanctions, attacks, or censure against its nuclear program.
• Link: Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Capability and Terrorism Monitoring Act of 2022—Assessment Regarding the Regional and Global Terrorism of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Antisemitism

The CCP’s Digital Charm Offensive: How TikTok’s Search Algorithm and Pro-China Influence Networks Indoctrinate GenZ Users in the United States: report by the Rutgers University-based Network Contagion Research Institute

• Following the October 7th attack by Hamas and the eruption of conflict across the Middle East, researchers with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) embraced user journeys as a way to gauge algorithmic bias vis-a-vis the war in Gaza. The WSJ team created 8 sock puppet accounts posing as 13-year-old American teens and categorized conflict-related content that was served up as either pro-Palestinian or pro-Israel. The WSJ found that:
  • “Similarly to other social-media platforms, much of the war content TikTok served the accounts was pro-Palestinian—accounting for 59% of the more than 4,800 videos served to the bots that the Journal reviewed and deemed relevant to the conflict or war. Some 15% of those shown were pro-Israel.”
• This finding that four times as much pro-Palestinian conflict-centric content was served relative to pro-Israel content likewise coincides with the CCP’s geopolitical interests in the Middle East, which have notably chilled towards Israel while warming towards the Palestinians and other international backers. Though TikTok has denied claims of anti-Israel bias, mounting research on its coverage of the ongoing Middle East conflict has sparked the interest of U.S. lawmakers. The analysis undertaken in this current study assumes a similar experimental design to that of the WSJ though it focuses on domestic Chinese bellwether issues rather than global geopolitical concerns.
• Other key findings include:
  • TikTok’s moderation algorithms significantly augment this suppression. The views-to-likes ratio for anti-China content on TikTok was 87% lower than pro-China content even though the content was liked nearly twice as much.
  • “This manipulation is not just about content availability; it extends to psychological manipulation, particularly affecting Gen Z users,” Finkelstein wrote.
  • NCRI assesses that the CCP is deploying algorithmic manipulation in combination with prolific information operations to impact user beliefs and behaviors on a massive scale and that these efforts prove highly successful on TikTok in particular. These findings underscore the urgent need for transparent regulation of social media algorithms, or even the creation of a public trust funded by the platforms themselves to safeguard democratic values and free will.
• Link to the full report: The CCP’s Digital Charm Offensive
• Bloomberg Summarizes: TikTok Shows Less ‘Anti-China’ Content Than Rivals, Study Finds

• The Foundation to Combat Antisemitism (FCAS) publishes weekly information from over 300 million online data sources including public social media, traditional media, websites, blogs, forums, and more. The bigger the phrase on the above image, the more total mentions it had in the time period.

Three Columbia University deans who exchanged antisemitic text messages resigning by Haley Cohen in the Jewish Insider

• The three Columbia University deans who were placed on leave in June after exchanging antisemitic text messages will resign, a university official confirmed to Jewish Insider on Thursday.
• The resignations come more than one month after several students told JI that the original announcement from Columbia administration was “confusing” and “intentionally ambiguous.” The June 20 announcement from President Minouche Shafik referenced the “permanent removal” of the three — Susan Chang-Kim, vice dean and chief administrative officer; Cristen Kromm, dean of undergraduate student life; and Matthew Patashnick, associate dean for student and family support — but added that they “remain on leave.”
• The text messages, which have since been published by the House Committee on Education and the Workforce, which opened an investigation into the incident and demanded a full transcript of the texts, included a message from Chang-Kim at 1:46 p.m. reading, “Comes from such a place of privilege … hard to hear the woe is me, we need to huddle at the Kraft center. Huh??” At 2:06 p.m., Kromm wrote, “Amazing what can do” during a speech about an October 2023 Columbia Spectator op-ed by a campus rabbi.
• Link: Three Columbia University deans who exchanged antisemitic text messages resigning

Amid Gaza war, Wikipedia editors conclude Israel guilty of genocide

• The global editors of Wikipedia have officially renamed the entry “Allegations of genocide in the 2023 Israeli attack on Gaza” to “Gaza genocide.” This change followed a vote after months of debate, and the editors now consider this a settled fact.
• Prominent among these experts is Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur on Palestinian Territories, a figure both the U.S. and Israel have requested be removed from her position. Her statements are frequently cited in the entry.
• International organizations and news sites used as sources, such as Turkey’s Anadolu Agency, are known for their anti-Zionist bent. The entry also references texts by journalist Gideon Levy, philosopher Ilan Pappé and Ynet. The casualty figures are sourced from Gaza’s Health Ministry.
• Conversely, editors opposed to the title argued that “Gaza genocide” violates Wikipedia’s policy on neutral titles and reflects a bias against Israel. They pointed out that other contentious topics on Wikipedia explicitly indicate such disputes and suggested adding terms like “allegations” to better reflect the debate. They accused Wikipedia of a double standard, citing entries like “Allegations of genocide in the 2023 Hamas attack on Israel,” which still use the term “allegations.” They argued that enough scholars oppose the genocide claims to prevent changing the title to “Gaza genocide.” One editor claimed the entry “waves anti-Israel flags” and uses unreliable sources for its statistics.
• Link: Amid Gaza war, Wikipedia editors conclude Israel guilty of genocide